Consumption of Ultra-Processed Foods and Mortality: A National Prospective Cohort in Spain

Objective: To assess the prospective association between ultra-processed food consumption and all-cause mortality and to examine the effect of theoretical iso-caloric non-processed foods substitution.

Patients and methods: A population-based cohort of 11,898 individuals (mean age 46.9 years, and 50.5% women) were selected from the ENRICA study, a representative sample of the noninstitutionalized Spanish population. Dietary information was collected by a validated computer-based dietary history and categorized according to their degree of processing using NOVA classification. Total mortality was obtained from the National Death Index. Follow-up lasted from baseline (2008-2010) to mortality date or December 31^th, 2016, whichever was first. The association between quartiles of consumption of ultra-processed food and mortality was analyzed by Cox models adjusted for the main confounders. Restricted cubic-splines were used to assess dose-response relationships when using iso-caloric substitutions.

Results: Average consumption of ultra-processed food was 385 g/d (24.4% of the total energy intake). After a mean follow-up of 7.7 years (93,599 person-years), 440 deaths occurred. The hazard ratio (and 95% CI) for mortality in the highest versus the lowest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption was 1.44 (95% CI, 1.01-2.07; P trend=.03) in percent of energy and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.04-2.05; P trend=.03) in grams per day per kilogram. Isocaloric substitution of ultra-processed food with unprocessed or minimally processed foods was associated with a significant nonlinear decrease in mortality.

Conclusion: A higher consumption of ultra-processed food was associated with higher mortality in the general population. Furthermore, the theoretical iso-caloric substitution ultra-processed food by unprocessed or minimally processed foods would suppose a reduction of the mortality risk. If confirmed, these findings support the necessity of the development of new nutritional policies and guides at the national and international level.

Trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01133093.